HEALTHY FUTURES (2011 – 2015)
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Health, environmental change and adaptive capacity: mapping, examining and anticipating future risks of water-related vector-borne diseases in eastern Africa
The project HEALTHY FUTURES aims to develop a basis for anticipating future environmental changes and their impacts on water-related infectious diseases in equatorial Africa, and the capacity of health services in areas identified as high risk to respond to early warnings of future outbreaks. The project targets at least three water-related, vector-borne infectious diseases in central and eastern Africa. Following extensive discussions with experts in the field, strong candidates for inclusion in the project are malaria, bilharzia (and possibly other vector-borne helminth infections), trypanosomiases, and Rift Valley Fever.
The aims will be operationalised through
- the development of policy-relevant simulations of future environmental correlates of the focus infectious diseases based on regionally- and seasonally-specific climate change models and on realistic future scenarios of socio-economic conditions and landuse (notably agricultural intensification and urbanisation);
- the combination of these simulations with understanding of the epidemiology of the targeted diseases – including past linkages between changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions and outbreaks of the targeted infectious diseases – to improve (constrain) risk assessments of future outbreaks;
- the enhancement of the capacity of health services and workers on the ground in areas identified as at high risk to respond to predictions of future outbreaks of the targeted, infectious diseases as a result of a convergence of changing climatic, landuse and socio-economic conditions.
HEALTHY FUTURES Project Factsheet
Instrument: FP7-ENVIRONMENT, 15 partners
Role: Partner
Project volume: 3.38 MEUR, Z_GIS share: 218,700 EUR
Contact person: Stefan Kienberger
Researchers involved: Peter Zeil, Michael Hagenlocher